Isaac Models


While Tropical Storm Isaac approaches and hurricane warnings are being issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast, Mississippi State University researchers are preparing 12-hour models to forecast storm surge from Isaac that will inundate the coastal areas in its path. This information will be of significant assistance to decision makers of disaster agencies and others who are advising the public of emergency preparedness plans for sheltering in place or for potential evacuations.

Storm surge models are being run by a team of scientists under the direction of Dr. Pat Fitzpatrick, research professor of meteorology and MSU hurricane expert known for his vast number of research publications that includes the reference book Hurricanes (2nd edition). Dr. Fitzpatrick’s team is located at the Mississippi State University Science and Technology Center at Stennis Space Center.

The storm surge models are generated from the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model, a hydrodynamic model requiring a supercomputer to capture high-resolution features. The track and winds are based on the official National Hurricane Center
forecasts. However, Dr. Fitzpatrick’s data for winds is designed to capture the horizontal distribution out to their 39-mph extent (tropical-storm force). According to Fitzpatrick, capturing the horizontal wind distribution is just as important as getting the track and intensity right.

The large-capacity model runs are an example of the computational services being provided by the High Performance Computing Collaboratory (HPC2) at MSU. The Geosystems Research Institute at Stennis Space Center where Dr. Fitzpatrick is based, is one of six member centers of the HPC2 that are able to take advantage of high performance computing resources at the university.

This research effort is part of a larger collaboration: as a member of the NSF-funded Northern Gulf Coastal Hazards Collaboratory (NG CHC), Mississippi State University is working with Louisiana and Alabama to leverage partnerships, proximity, and significant prior ventures to advance science and engineering of coastal hazards across the northern Gulf of Mexico region.

ADCIRC Isaac 4-day hindcast run with MSgrid
2012082616 to 2012083015 UTC

ADCIRC Isaac run with MSgrid and
Forecast Advisory 32 (2012082903 UTC)

ADCIRC Isaac run with MSgrid and
Forecast Advisory 31 (2012082821 UTC)

ADCIRC Isaac run with MSgrid and
Forecast Advisory 28 (2012082803 UTC)


ADCIRC Isaac run with MSgrid and Forecast Advisory 26 (2012082715 UTC)

ADCIRC Isaac run with MSgrid and Forecast Advisory 22 (2012082615 UTC)

ADCIRC Isaac run with MSgrid and Forecast Advisory 20 (2012082603 UTC)

ADCIRC Isaac run with MSgrid and Forecast Advisory 18 (2012082515 UTC)

ADCIRC Isaac run with MSgrid and Forecast Advisory 14 (2012082415 UTC)








SAMPLE Animation:

ADCIRC Gustav run using MSgrid & Advisory 30



Geosystems Research Institute and Northern Gulf Institute
Mississippi State University
Contact Pat Fitzpatrick for more information.
This web site is hosted by the High Performance Computing Collaboratory.